Five weeks into the 2025/26 Fantasy Premier League campaign, FPL managers are facing fresh challenges and opportunities as the landscape begins to take clearer shape. Early season favourites have faltered, key injuries have disrupted plans, and emerging differentials are quickly gaining popularity. With high-profile fixtures like Arsenal vs Manchester City on the horizon, strategic thinking is more important than ever. Football betting analyst Tyler Morris from BettingTips4You.com provides some tips after 4 Gameweeks.
Early Struggles: Watkins and Wirtz Continue to Disappoint
Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins (£9.0m) began the campaign with favourable fixtures and high expectations, but has yet to score in the opening four rounds. Despite registering decent underlying numbers – including four shots in the box in Gameweek 2 – Watkins has looked increasingly isolated in an Aston Villa side still searching for fluency in attack under Unai Emery.
Over 175,000 managers have already moved Watkins on, with forwards like João Pedro (£7.5m) and Chris Wood (£7.6m) rising in popularity. Pedro continues to benefit from Chelsea’s fluid attacking play, while Forest’s Wood now has prime fixtures against two newly promoted sides in Burnley and Sunderland.
Florian Wirtz (£8.4m), meanwhile, has struggled to adapt to Arne Slot’s 4-2-3-1 system at Liverpool. Although his pedigree is not in doubt, the German international has failed to impact games consistently, and his presence has arguably diminished Mohamed Salah’s attacking output. With viable alternatives such as Antoine Semenyo (£7.2m) and Brennan Johnson (£7.0m) offering more direct involvement and returns, Wirtz is rapidly becoming a transfer-out priority.
Midfield Shake-Up: Semenyo, Palmer, and Kudus in the Spotlight
The midfield market has been thrown into flux following injuries to Bukayo Saka (£10.0m) and Cole Palmer (£10.5m), though Palmer has since returned and reminded managers of his class. The Chelsea playmaker scored in the 2-2 draw with Brentford and followed that up with a composed finish in the Champions League against Bayern Munich. With fixtures against Manchester United, Brighton, Nottingham Forest, and Sunderland between Gameweeks 5 and 9, Palmer looks a standout pick at £10.4m and boasts a strong record against United, scoring four in four previous starts.
Antoine Semenyo continues to impress as a budget option, having recorded two goals and an assist in his opening matches. His xG of 1.98 remains among the highest for midfielders, and Bournemouth’s upcoming fixtures make him an appealing short-term hold.
Elsewhere, Spurs’ Mohammed Kudus (£6.6m) is emerging as a long-term value option. The midfielder is on set-pieces, looks creative in the final third, and has clearly earned the trust of Thomas Frank. With Spurs enjoying a kind run, Kudus offers the potential for consistent returns at a low cost.
For those seeking a true differential, Nottingham Forest’s Morgan Gibbs-White (£7.5m) remains on the radar. His creativity and attacking licence under new management could translate into valuable points during a relatively soft run of games.
Gameweek 5 Fixtures and Transfer Market Trends
Gameweek 5 is headlined by a heavyweight clash between Arsenal and Manchester City — a fixture full of quality but often one to avoid from an FPL perspective, as the top sides tend to cancel each other out. Arsenal’s Gabriel (£6.1m), however, remains a strong long-term defensive asset. He has already banked 23 points through clean sheets and bonus contributions and continues to offer aerial threat from set-pieces. His inclusion should not be deterred by a single difficult fixture.
Transfer trends show growing interest in mid-price players with favourable fixtures. João Pedro remains the most transferred-in forward, and Semenyo continues to attract managers looking to free up funds. Defenders such as Riccardo Calafiori and Marc Cucurella are also gaining traction as bargain options.
One emerging name is Bournemouth’s Marcos Senesi (£4.6m), whose defensive work rate and bonus potential have drawn attention. With 55 defensive contributions in just four matches – nearly matching Moises Caicedo – and an assist already to his name, Senesi represents excellent value. Bournemouth’s next five fixtures include no teams ranked higher than 3 on the official Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR), making him a viable option for those in need of budget coverage.
Differentials to Watch: Chris Wood and Xavi Simons
Chris Wood (£7.6m) is quietly positioning himself as a forward to monitor. Although he hasn’t scored since his Gameweek 1 brace, Forest’s upcoming fixtures against promoted sides provide the ideal environment for a resurgence. With a more attacking system being implemented, Wood could benefit from increased service and better positioning.
Xavi Simons (£7.0m), signed by Spurs over the summer, made his first Premier League start in a 3-0 win over West Ham, recording an assist in 70 minutes. A proven performer at RB Leipzig last season, where he tallied 11 goals and 8 assists, Simons has the pedigree and fixtures to deliver if given a consistent run. Upcoming games against Brighton, Wolves, and Leeds present an opportunity for him to stake a claim in many FPL sides as a low-ownership differential.
Balancing Patience and Proactive Moves
While the temptation is strong to overhaul squads following four mixed Gameweeks, the more considered approach may still yield the best results. Players such as Watkins and Wirtz, while disappointing, could yet come good – especially in softer fixtures or once team dynamics settle.
At the same time, managers who are chasing early ranks or trying to make up ground would be wise to act decisively on players showing form and favourable fixtures. The likes of Palmer, Semenyo, and João Pedro offer routes into attacking returns without premium price tags, enabling flexibility elsewhere in the squad.
With Gameweek 5 set to shape FPL strategy moving forward, successful managers will be those who read both the underlying data and fixture patterns carefully – and act accordingly.