Nothing is bulletproof, nothing invincible and the ironclad box office armour that has surrounded Star Wars since the late 70’s appears to have been well and truly punctured as the magnificent Solo: A Star Wars Story collapses at the worldwide box office.
After the disappointment of The Last Jedi in China, pulled from screens after just two weeks on release (a regional anomaly for a blockbuster film that was still big enough and ugly enough to bring in north of $1.3 billion, putting it in the all-time top ten highest grossers of all time), eyes turned to Solo and how it would perform. Initial weekend expectations for North America had it bringing in anything around the $150m mark, but unexpectedly it fell far short of that. Media researchers Doug Creutz and Stephen Glagola looked at the reasons for that shortfall, highlighting the marketing as a major problem, the biggest of a wide variety of factors which seem to have conspired to hit the box office for Solo hard.
Wall Street analyst Barton Crockett says Solo will lose more than $50 million. Industry financing sources, however, say that figure could come in at $80 million or higher, although no one knows the exact terms of Disney’s deals for home entertainment and television, among other ancillary revenues.
Solo, directed by Ron Howard, isn’t likely to gross much more than $400 million globally against a budget of at least $250 million and a major multimillion-dollar marketing spend. The movie lost major altitude in its second weekend of play to finish Sunday with a domestic total of $148.9 million and a global cume of $264.2 million.
Until now, Disney and Lucasfilm appeared unstoppable. Force Awakens, benefiting mightily from pent-up demand, earned $2.068 billion globally to rank as the No. 3 title of all time, not adjusted for inflation. The stand-alone title Rogue One: A Star Wars Story flew to $1.056 billion, while Star Wars: The Last Jedi grossed $1.332 billion. Since expectations for any film in the Star Wars franchise are sizable, no one expected Solo to fly so low.
“This marks a tough return to movie reality for a Disney that had in recent years enjoyed a can’t-miss mystique,” Crockett wrote in his note to investors.
In his own note to investors, analyst Doug Creutz of Cowen & Co. pins the blame on a lackluster marketing campaign rather than franchise fatigue.
All we can say is go and see this fantastic action adventure film again and again and again, before it ends its run on the big screen (where Star Wars films truly belong).
