Box Office Theory have looked at the tales of the tape and are estimating a US domestic three-day opening weekend of around $71m, the lowest opening of the Disney era but with production costs considerably less than any of the five previous films – and the cinematic realm very different even to the one that welcomed The Rise of Skywalker six and a half years ago – a solid marketing run-in and word-of-mouth could see the film prosper into the summer months, when competition gets busy. BOT take a look at some of the pros and cons that face the film.
After a six-and-a-half-year absence, the Star Wars franchise returns to the big screen, following 2019’s Episode IX – The Rise of Skywalker.
One of the bright spots early in that era was The Mandalorian itself, developed by Jon Favreau (who helms this big screen feature) alongside franchise veteran Dave Filoni, who is set to take over the reigns of Lucasfilm with Lynwen Brennan as industry veteran and accomplished producer Kathleen Kennedy steps down after more than a decade.
To boot, the character of Grogu (a.k.a. “Baby Yoda”) became an instant pop culture icon with his 2019 debut in the series. Combined with the return of Pedro Pascal as the (now “other”) title character, die-hard fans and some casual Star Wars viewers — especially families — should be upfront drivers for this cinematic follow-up to the streaming series over Memorial Day weekend as summer vacations begin.
Favreau’s previous directorial success and the promise of a return to more grounded, practical effects in this film will also be appealing to more avid followers of the series, while the potential for a standalone adventure could prove to be a universal audience strength.
Additionally, there is the question of how Disney can market the stakes of this film since it essentially serves as a sequel-prequel in the middle of previously established Star Wars lore in the primary feature films, while notably not centering around most of the parent franchise’s pillars (Jedi, Sith, forward-moving mythology, universe-ending threats, etc.).
In that regard, The Mandalorian & Grogu has similar mountains to climb as The Marvels, Captain America: Brave New World, and Thunderbolts* did for Disney’s MCU going into their theatrical launches.
Ultimately, word of mouth will be key in the middle of a busy summer slate. Star Wars films are not typically as front-loaded as might seem obvious for a property with such a large fan base, but that speaks to its equally as large (or larger) family audience when the stories work as crowd-pleasers rather than homework for the next (or even previous) chapter.
The film’s position as the first bona fide family-friendly tentpole since April’s The Super Mario Galaxy Movie also does it some favors for built-up demand, as will a blanket IMAX and premium screen presence.
