Box Office Pro take a look at the opening weekend prospects for The Mandalorian and Grogu, posting that they believe an opening weekend of $90m – $100m is where the film will open, rather than the $60m – $70m that was being posted a couple of weeks ago. After over half a decade away from multiplexes, and with the movie not being a part of the Skywalker Saga but rather a big screen spin-off from a hit Disney Plus TV show, these lower estimates are perhaps to be expected, but….the trailer has gone down well, May the 4th is coming in fast (which always sees interest in the saga peak), so perhaps we could be looking at a $200m+ global opening weekend, which would bode well for a healthy box office run through spring and into early summer.
Star Wars makes its return to the big screen in this spin-off from the popular Disney+ TV series. Since the release of Star Wars: Episode IX – The Rise of Skywalker ($177.3M domestic opening) in 2019 the franchise has largely been relegated to Disney’s streaming service, which may have an adverse affect on audience interest in this new chapter. Star Wars‘ six-year absence from the big screen, paired with The Mandalorian and Grogu‘s small screen origins and the film’s status as a standalone adventure (vs an official part of the core saga) have us leaning conservative for our opening weekend forecast, though as marketing ramps up closer to release our prediction could nudge upwards. (Of note on that front: San Diego Comic Con and D23, the biggest events on Disney’s calendar in terms of hyping up future releases, don’t take place until after The Mandalorian and Grogu is released.)
A $100M opening for The Mandalorian and Grogu would be the lowest for a Star Wars film since 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story ($84.4M), also a May release. The other big-screen Star Wars spinoff, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, opened to $155M in December of 2016, a tally that The Mandalorian and Grogu is unlikely to match. (Rogue One, sandwiched between Star Wars: Episode VII: The Force Awakens in December 2015 and Star Wars Episode VIII: The Last Jedi in December 2017, opened at a time when fan enthusiasm for the franchise was notably higher.)
As with all films, word of mouth will help power the film to greater financial success (and potentially sequels) and there’s plenty of words coming from the team here at Fantha Tracks, so stay tuned to site, socials, TV and pods (or even seeing us in person at events around the globe) for more.
