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Predicting box office hauls is a complicated game, and there are few as well informed as Scott Mendelson who takes a look at the stats and facts to see what The Rise Of Skywalker  – which opens three months today in the States and a day before in the UK – might take at the worldwide box office.

Lost in much of the handwringing two years ago over The Last Jedi was the mere fact that it fell about as much from The Force Awakens (-34% domestic and -37% overseas) as did The Empire Strikes Back and Attack of the Clones from Star Wars and The Phantom Menace. If history follows suit, then The Rise of Skywalker will rise around 20-22% domestic and around 35% overseas from The Last Jedi. If that seems extreme, especially on the overseas side, it probably is. Even Endgame, with that 70% jump in China, “only” rose 41% from Infinity War’s $1.369 billion overseas gross. Nonetheless, expect a final gross right between Last Jedi ($620 million domestic and $1.332.5 billion worldwide) and The Force Awakens ($937 million/$2.068 billion).

Be sure to read the full article, which hypothesizes a number of scenarios from worst to best and then scribble your guesses down on a bit of paper and see how close you are come December.