Box Office Pro takes a look at the opening weekend and long-term possibilities for Solo: A Star Wars Story, a far rosier prospect than many may be predicting given its turbulent production history.
Early estimates have the film opening around $150 million – comparable to Rogue One – with a $390 million final tally. As Box Office Pro explain, given the many random variables, it’s not appropriate to compare Solo to the previous three releases, or to Avengers: Infinity War which is tracking for a final total of $538 million, which does seem somewhat conservative.
Expectations should reasonably be kept in check more than they have been for the franchise in recent years, but there is every hope that director Ron Howard has stepped in and completed a project that will entertain audiences as Star Wars has always done even at its “lowest” points. The barometer for success is not the $532 million domestic gross of Rogue One, and it’s important to ignore those kinds of short-sighted comparisons in the coming months.
Word of mouth and reviews, as always, will be crucial to the long term success of Solo. For now, a domestic gross anywhere between $350-475 million looks most likely. Early social media buzz and trailer reactions around this film suggest the franchise may be due for a bit of a rest — if only in relative terms to Star Wars‘ typical otherworldly numbers — before December 2019’s trilogy-capping Episode IX arrives with a renewed sense of anticipation behind it.
Still, none of this is meant to cast a shadow over the potential of Solo. Millions of fans and families still adore this series, and Han Solo remains one of the franchise’s most popular characters by far. Harrison Ford will surely be missed in the role, but many are excited to see Alden Ehrenreich’s youthful and charismatic interpretation, not to mention Donald Glover’s young Lando, alongside franchise newcomers Woody Harrelson and Game of Thrones‘ Emilia Clarke.
This franchise has always served as an all-too-relevant parable for hope triumphing over despair, while simultaneously serving as fun, escapist fare built for all ages. If the efforts thus far of Disney, Lucasfilm, Kathleen Kennedy, and the entire Star Wars team are any indication, it will be the fans who embrace such a philosophy that Solo will best appeal to.
