There is concerns around the future financial success of the Walt Disney Company as investors reflect on the negative impact the acquisition of Fox, and spend on Disney+ will have on the companies earnings. Projections from Disney itself, suggest that Disney+ may not turn a profit until 2024.
JPMorgan analyst Alexia Quadrani has flagged concerns about Disney’s spending on direct-to-consumer platforms like Disney+ and the “choppy” integration of 21st Century Fox film and television assets.
The JPMorgan analyst cut her Disney earnings estimate for the fourth quarter to 95 cents a share from $1.05. She slashed her EPS estimate to $5.50 from $6.30 for fiscal 2020, vs. Wall Street consensus of $5.72.
“For Q4, we tweak our estimates at the Studio segment, mindful that the Fox films likely underperformed again this quarter, slightly offsetting stellar ‘Lion King’ results,” Quadrani said. For 2020, she’s wary about unproven movie titles as well as tough comps with five Disney films topping $1 billion at the worldwide box office apiece this year.
JPMorgan expects Disney+ will achieve 75 million global subscribers by end of fiscal 2024. Disney itself foresees 60 million to 90 million subscribers by 2024, while Morgan Stanley estimates 70 million subscribers by 2024 and 100 million in a bull case. Disney also sees Disney+ turning profitable by 2024. For context, Netflix has roughly 149 million global subscribers.