Early data appears to be pointing towards The Mandalorian and Grogu heading towards an $80m 4-day Memorial Day Weekend in North America, ahead of predictions a couple of weeks ago and roughly on a par with the opening Solo: A Star Wars Story nabbed eight years ago on the same weekend, though with a significantly higher budget. With May the 4th still ahead of us and promotional spots, teasers and marketing ramping up by the day, there’s still plenty of time (3 weeks) for those numbers to nudge upwards.
If prerelease tracking is right, the Jon Favreau-directed movie — a continuation of his Disney+ series The Mandalorian — will open in the $80 million range at the domestic box office over the long, four-day Memorial Day weekend, according to sources with access to the data. That’s in line with expectations from Lucasfilm and Disney, according to insiders.
While it is the first Star Wars film on the big screen since COVID, it doesn’t face the same pressure that a title in the core franchise would, such as 2019’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, which opened to $177.3 million. Lucasfilm also has next year’s Star Wars: Starfighter on the docket, from director Shawn Levy and star Ryan Gosling.
In 2018, Solo: A Star Wars Story — a prequel spin-off — opened to $84 million domestically over the three-day Memorial Day weekend and $104 million for the four days.
The marketing campaign for Mandalorian and Grogu will go into overdrive on May the 4th, the unofficial Star Wars holiday. Among other offerings, Lucasfilm will show 25 minutes of footage of The Mandalorian and the Grogu in select Imax theaters across the globe.
