While ever films opening weekend is crucial, oftentimes the second weekend is the determining factor whether or not the film will enjoy long-term financial success. The Rise of Skywalker is currently two-thirds of the way through that second weekend, and so far the numbers are good.
Disney and Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker earned $26.2 million on Friday, soaring past $300 million in North America and $600 million worldwide. The film fell 71% from its $90 million Friday, which is neither an emergency nor an exceptionally good hold. Rian Johnson’s The Last Jedi dropped 76% on its second Friday, while Rogue One fell 67% on its second Friday and J.J. Abrams’ The Force Awakens dropped 58% on Friday number two, which just happened to fall on Christmas Day. As presumed, The Rise of Skywalker opened well below Last Jedi but is having stronger post-debut legs. Which is, not to brag, exactly what I’ve been saying would happen for two years.
Credit the “straight from opening weekend to holiday break” scheduling, an advantage that Rogue One and Last Jedi did not have but Force Awakens did. Wonder Woman 1984 and No Time to Die moving to 2020 didn’t hurt either. Rise of Skywalker grossed $316 million domestic in eight days, essentially neck-and-neck with The Last Jedi’s $321 million eight-day cume after a $220 million opening weekend. It could gross around $31 million today, giving it a nine-day total of around $346 million, or just below Last Jedi’s $350 million nine-day domestic cume. Barring a fluke in either direction, we can expect a $78 million second-weekend gross, down a “meh” 56% from its $176 million opening weekend.
The Numbers have the figures in finer detail.
The last weekend of the year began on Friday and there’s some good news and some bad news. Bad news, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker fell faster than expected, down 71% from its opening Friday to just $26.23 million. Granted, this was still more than enough to blow past the $300 million mark in just eight days, putting it in a tie for fifth fastest to reach $300 million. The film will bounce back over the rest of the weekend and it is projected to earn $76 million over the three-day weekend for a running tally of $366 million. If it ended there, then the film could still break even, eventually. In reality, the film has two more weeks of no serious competition, so it will have no trouble getting past a couple of more major milestones before it is done it box office run.
By day 8, Rise is on $316,030,342, compared to The Last Jedi which was on $321,365,440. The two films are tracking incredibly close to each other, meaning a similar North American box office total is looking likely.
Worldwide, the film will likely take less, given its collapse in China (The Last Jedi raked in $41m, whereas Rise so far only has $15m compared to The Force Awakens which grabbed $120m) but the film should still be hot enough to become the 46th film to break into the billion dollar club and sneak into the all time top 25 movies worldwide (it’s currently 161st just behind Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa) and the top 10 domestic (it’s currently number #76 just behind Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull).
