We’ll soon know if this is the way to box office glory when The Mandalorian and Grogu arrives in cinemas across the world, and with current indicators seeming to agree with the $80m 4-day weekend predictions of a few weeks ago, the movie is looking at a $160m global opening, lower domestically than Solo almost a decade ago, but higher globally (and with a far lower budget to parlay into profit).
Currently sitting at 61% on Rotten Tomatoes, and with the film about to enter the wider realm of fan reviews, word of mouth will surely be the thing that either propels the film to a healthy profit…or not.
The new hope is that the pic from director Jon Favreau co-written with EP Dave Filoni and Noah Kloor will meet or exceed its $80M 4-day tracking in North America.
The global outlook is $160M worldwide, with $80M of that from a 98% footprint offshore. The only territory not going this weekend is Korea. That start for the $165M net production would be slightly ahead of the global opening of 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story in like-for-likes. (Solo) posted a 4-day over Memorial Day weekend of $103M domestic and another $52M abroad.
North American presales for Mandalorian and Grogu stand at $25M, which is ahead of Project Hail Mary at the same point in time ($80.5M 3-day opening) and in line with Avatar: Fire and Ash ($89.1M 3-day). The movie is booked in 4,300 theaters, including 425 Imax, with the full suite of PLF, 4DX, 3D and ScreenX. The Force is with Mandalorian and Grogu as the movie will have an exclusive three-week play in Imax. Previews start Thursday at 2 p.m., hard. No early fan screenings Wednesday. The review embargo just lifted, and critics — gulp — stand at 61% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. Solo: A Star Wars Story was at 69% fresh.
